Gold and Silver Press Lower as FOMC Countdown Begins

Gold and silver extended their recent slide Thursday, with both metals trading right around some major moving averages both are currently beneath their 50 and 100-day simple moving averages a technically bearish configuration that has been in place since mid-April. Gold closed on the day at $4,692, while silver fell harder, shedding 3% to $75.39 a sharp reversal from the $84 range it held just ten days ago. The selloff has stripped gold of roughly $550 from its early-year peak near $5,238 and pulled silver nearly $15 off its recent high of just above $90.

The macro backdrop is supplying those headwinds. According to Trading Economics, gold fell toward $4,700 Thursday as markets continued to wrestle with elevated uncertainty in the Middle East and the ongoing Strait of Hormuz blockage, which has kept energy prices elevated and inflation risks high. Tehran has maintained control over the waterway, reportedly firing on commercial vessels this week, while the U.S. upheld its blockade of Iranian ports. Although President Trump extended the ceasefire and stated the truce would remain in place while Washington awaits a new Iranian peace proposal, plans for a second round of formal negotiations have collapsed after Vice President Vance canceled his Islamabad trip. With no clear diplomatic off-ramp in sight, crude oil remains near multi-month highs — Brent Crude crossed $103 per barrel Thursday — anchoring inflation expectations and reinforcing the case for higher-for-longer rates.

That rate environment is the core problem for bullion. Kotak Securities AVP Commodity Research Kaynat Chainwala noted Thursday that markets are now pricing in no rate cuts through 2026, a direct headwind for non-yielding assets like gold and silver. The observation is borne out by CME FedWatch data, which puts a 99.5% probability on the Fed holding at 3.50-3.75% at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting now just six days away. Thursday's jobless claims print of 214,000, up 6,000 from the prior week and slightly above forecasts, offered a mildly softer labor market signal but not enough to meaningfully shift rate expectations. The final significant data point before the FOMC decision arrives Friday, when the University of Michigan releases its April inflation expectations survey. A hot reading would likely push gold and silver to fresh near-term lows.

Adding a longer-term wildcard, Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation hearing this week drew attention after he pledged to act independently and called for a new framework to address persistent inflation without elaborating on specifics. The April 29 FOMC meeting will be Powell's last as chair, making the statement and press conference unusually consequential for precious metals pricing into the summer. Fortune reported gold at $4,736 at the 8:50 a.m. ET open Thursday, representing a roughly $1,448 gain year-over-year, a reminder that despite the current corrective pressure, the secular trend remains intact. JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs continue to forecast gold fluctuating between $4,000 and $6,300 through the rest of 2026 Although JP Morgan reportedly lowered year end expectations for gold by 10%.

Silver's steeper drop, nearly double gold's percentage decline today reflects its dual identity as both a safe-haven and an industrial metal. With Brent Crude elevated, manufacturing PMI data also released Thursday, and global growth concerns circling, industrial demand expectations for silver are softening alongside its monetary premium. Platinum fell 3% and palladium dropped 4.5% Thursday, underscoring broad-based weakness across the precious metals complex. The immediate focus for traders will be Friday's Michigan sentiment data, the weekend's geopolitical developments out of Tehran and Washington, and positioning ahead of what promises to be a pivotal FOMC statement next Tuesday.

Wishing you as always good trading,