Gold Holds Gains as Silver Surges 7.4% on Trade Optimism

Gold futures extended their recent winning streak Monday, posting a fourth higher close in five sessions. The contract settled at $4,745 per ounce, up $21.90, or 0.48%, on the day, a solid if measured advance that nonetheless understated the session’s drama.

The most notable price action came in the opening hour of U.S. trading. Between 8:00 and 9:00 a.m. ET, as American retail and institutional participants entered the market, gold surged $62.80, or 1.34%, briefly touching an intraday high of $4,758 before pulling back through the afternoon. The opening-hour rally accounted for the bulk of the day’s volatility and set the tone for what followed.

That morning advance came despite potentially bearish commentary from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who issued a call for a year-long pause in gold purchases by Indian consumers. India is consistently one of the world’s largest gold-buying nations, and such remarks would ordinarily weigh on prices. Instead, buyers in India and abroad appeared unfazed, helping absorb any selling pressure and sustaining the upward move — a signal of underlying demand strength that market participants should not overlook.

Silver Steals the Spotlight

The day’s true standout was silver. Futures surged $5.97, or 7.39%, to settle at $86.80 per ounce — a new two-month high and one of the metal’s strongest single-session performances in recent memory. The move dwarfed gold’s gain by a factor of more than fifteen and demands an explanation.

According to GoldSilver.com, two forces converged simultaneously to drive the move. The first is trade: the United States and China reportedly announced a 90-day tariff truce over the weekend, cutting U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% and reducing Chinese tariffs on U.S. goods from 125% to 10%. For gold, the outlet noted, that news is roughly neutral. For silver, it is a direct demand signal.

The reason lies in silver’s industrial profile. According to the Silver Institute, approximately 60% of silver’s annual consumption is industrial — spanning solar panels, electric vehicle batteries, and semiconductors — with much of that supply chain running through China. When tariffs fell, traders moved quickly to reprice silver’s demand outlook. The 7% single-session move is that repricing happening in real time.

Compounding the trade catalyst is a structural backdrop years in the making. The Silver Institute estimates silver has run a supply deficit for six consecutive years, with consumption consistently outpacing mine production. The 2026 deficit is projected at 46.3 million ounces, up 15% from 2025. Since 2021, roughly 762 million troy ounces have been drawn down from above-ground stockpiles. As GoldSilver.com put it: the trade truce lit the match, and six years of deficits supplied the fuel.

Independent corroboration of the reported U.S.-China tariff truce had not emerged from major financial wire services at the time of this writing. That caveat is worth stating plainly. However, the scenario fits the broader diplomatic context: President Trump is expected to travel to China later this week for direct talks with President Xi Jinping, and a preliminary trade concession announced in advance of those meetings would be consistent with established negotiating patterns on both sides. No alternative explanation for silver’s outsized session move has surfaced. Until further reporting confirms or refutes the truce, this narrative remains the most credible working thesis — and if confirmed, the implications for silver’s near-term trajectory could be significant.

Wishing you as always good trading,