Gold Surges to Monthly High Amid Tariff Turmoil and Geopolitical Strain

Gold posted a sharp monthly high on Monday, climbing $117, or 2.29%, to $5,248 per troy ounce, as a confluence of legal, political, and geopolitical pressures sent investors rushing toward safe-haven assets. The rally underscores gold's enduring appeal in an environment where policy uncertainty has become the defining feature of global markets.

The immediate catalyst was a landmark Supreme Court ruling that struck down President Donald Trump's sweeping global tariffs as unconstitutional, finding that the administration had overstepped its authority in invoking emergency powers to levy the duties. The decision carries significant fiscal implications — tariff revenues had been factored into deficit projections, and their sudden legal vulnerability rattled confidence in the near-term trajectory of U.S. trade and budget policy.

President Trump moved swiftly in response, announcing Saturday that the White House would roll out a replacement 15% global tariff to fill the void left by the court's decision. However, the substitute measure comes with constraints: it is permitted to remain in effect for no more than 150 days and is restricted to circumstances involving fundamental international payments imbalances. While the administration framed the move as a continuation of its trade agenda, markets interpreted the legal and structural limitations as a meaningful source of ongoing uncertainty — a backdrop historically favorable for gold.

Geopolitical tensions added further fuel to the rally. U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations have reached an impasse ahead of a critical Geneva meeting scheduled for Thursday, with a parallel military buildup in the Middle East stoking risk-off sentiment across asset classes. The combination of superpower trade friction and a deteriorating diplomatic climate in the Gulf provided a powerful secondary tailwind for the metal.

Demand dynamics also played a supportive role. Chinese buyers returned to the market following a weeklong national holiday, injecting fresh momentum into both gold and silver. The resumption of Chinese participation is notable given the country's status as one of the world's largest consumers of precious metals, and its re-entry helped sustain upward pressure even as Western markets digested the tariff news.

The bullish backdrop is increasingly reflected in institutional price targets. Several major investment banks have now issued forecasts calling for gold at $6,000 or higher in 2026. BMO Equity Research projects the metal could reach $6,500 per ounce, citing persistent inflation risks, elevated geopolitical tensions, and sustained central bank buying — particularly from emerging market economies actively reducing their exposure to the U.S. dollar. BMO's analysts also argue that gold's bull case no longer depends on aggressive easing from the Federal Reserve, with structural demand robust enough to support prices regardless of the pace of rate cuts.

JPMorgan's outlook is similarly constructive. The bank's base case now calls for gold at $6,300 per ounce in the current cycle, with a more extreme macro scenario potentially opening a path to $8,000 — one of the most aggressive price targets on Wall Street.

Silver, too, participated meaningfully in Monday's move. Futures rose $3.43, or 4.06%, to settle at $88.00 per troy ounce, buoyed by the return of Chinese buyers and the same macro forces driving gold. The metal's dual role as both a safe-haven and industrial commodity has kept it firmly in focus as investors weigh the interplay between slowing global growth and persistent supply constraints.

With legal uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy, geopolitical flashpoints showing no signs of resolution, and institutional price targets climbing steadily higher, precious metals appear well-positioned to remain at the center of the macro conversation heading into the second half of the year.

Wishing you as always good trading,