Hostility in Middle East Puts Damper on Delivery of Bullion as Gold Whipsaws

In the pre-dawn hours of Saturday, February 28, 2026, coordinated US and Israeli airstrikes — codenamed Operation Roaring Lion and Operation Epic Fury respectively — struck military installations, leadership compounds, and nuclear-linked facilities across Iran. Within hours, Iranian state media confirmed the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, triggering declarations of mourning, a nationwide lockdown and, almost immediately, retaliatory missile and drone salvos against US military assets and allied Gulf states.

For gold traders, the news arrived like a detonator. Spot gold, which had been trading near $5,100 per ounce ahead of the strikes, catapulted past $5,300 in a single session — a gain exceeding $200, representing one of the largest intraday dollar moves for the metal on record. By Monday morning, as the conflict entered its third day with no ceasefire in sight, prices had surged further still, touching a session high of $5,418 before settling around $5,384, up 2% on the day.

"Gold is perhaps the finest barometer of global uncertainty — and the mercury is rising." — Ross Norman, independent analyst

Gold had already posted seven consecutive months of gains heading into March — the longest such streak since 1973 — buoyed by persistent inflation, central bank accumulation and investor anxieties over US trade policy. J.P. Morgan and Bank of America had both reiterated price targets toward the $6,000 level just days before the strikes, with J.P. Morgan forecasting a climb to $6,300 by year-end on the back of sustained central bank demand.

Now the calculus has shifted further in gold's favor. Iran's threats to close the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20–30% of global seaborne oil flows — have moved from rhetorical posturing to credible risk. Oil surged more than 6% on Monday, its largest single-day gain in four years, stoking inflation expectations just as swap markets began scaling back bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts. The oil-inflation-gold feedback loop, long theoretical, is now live.

The conflict has introduced a rarely-discussed friction into bullion markets: physical delivery. Dubai International Airport — a critical transit hub for gold shipments flowing from London to Asian buyers — temporarily suspended commercial flights following Iranian drone and missile strikes in the UAE. Traders reported scrambling to reroute consignments mid-transit, echoing the supply disruptions of the early pandemic period when flight shutdowns created significant pricing dislocations between London, New York, and Asian hubs. The disruption, even if temporary, highlights a structural vulnerability in gold's global logistics network at precisely the moment when demand is spiking.

Not all signals point uniformly higher. Gold pared some of its early Monday gains as analysts began factoring in the possibility that sustained oil-driven inflation could force the Federal Reserve to tighten rather than ease monetary policy. Higher real rates are traditionally a headwind for non-yielding bullion, and Frank Monkam, head of cross-asset macro strategy at Buffalo Bayou Commodities, noted that the rate-hike scenario was already beginning to cap upside. ING analysts struck a more nuanced tone, arguing that any regional spillover or prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption would ultimately overwhelm the rate headwind by materially boosting inflation expectations while keeping real yields contained through risk-off Treasury demand.

"A regional spillover would materially boost gold through higher oil prices, increased inflation expectations and contained real yields." — ING analysts

With Trump stating that military operations against Iran will continue "until all objectives are met" — citing regime change as one of four stated goals — markets are braced for a conflict measured in weeks, not days. David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures, captured the prevailing mood succinctly: the uncertainty itself is the primary driver, and uncertainty shows no sign of resolution.

Technical analysts note that a decisive break above the January record of $5,594 would open a path toward the $6,000–$6,500 range, targets that now appear less fanciful than they did 72 hours ago. For investors navigating a world that looks structurally different from the one that existed last Friday, gold's ancient role as the asset of last resort appears as relevant as ever.

Wishing you as always, good trading,