In case anyone was wondering what the big-dog currency on the block in Asia is, ask no more questions. As the yen goes, so goes all of Asia’s economic momentum.

The Japanese currency surged about 0.70% against the U.S. dollar, which has been weakening due to the general consensus that the Federal Reserve will not raise rates at this week’s policy meeting.

There’s always at least one in every crowd that cuts across the grain. Today, we have a number of equities traders across the globe who are concerned the Fed is going to surprise markets.

Yawn… and if the Fed does surprise? U.S. rates go to 0.75, scarcely a game changer. Never mind, though, because it won’t be happening.

Gold showed its potency as an investment of independent value today. Regular trading took more than $11.00 higher. Unfortunately for bulls, a stronger dollar knock gold down around $7.00. The yellow precious metal is looking at a $7.00 up-move on the day, or about 0.50%.

Percentage-wise, silver did even better, rising 1.30% on the session.

Coming under the influence of strong outside bullish forces, gold rose over 1.40% today. Little sister silver is up around 4.00%.

We are not looking at safe haven plays today, surely, but rather at a general sense that gold and silver have been trading too low for too long and now are fulfilling their potential as strong investments with the upside looking very positive.

Only a few days after it became clear that an interest-rate hike by the United States Federal Reserve in June is very unlikely it isn’t terribly surprising that gold is looking for a wide hole in the line to run through.

Even with a solid, if modest, assist from a softer U.S. dollar, gold in mid-afternoon is up only 40 cents. Silver is off a quarter of a percent.

Gold remained somewhat static in price today, not surprising since equities and crude moved up strongly based on various statements from Federal Reserve officials.

No one should focus on any one data set, as Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen said today in her speech before the World Affairs Council of Philadelphia. But, we are not concerned with simply one set of data points in the least.

When life looks like Easy Street, there’s danger at your door.
                – “Uncle John’s Band,” The Grateful Dread

U.S. economic data is putting us in a quandary along with the Fed, Fed watchers, analysts and traders around the world.

Today’s figures and one international development added more fuel to the confusion fire. The outcome? We do not believe the FOMC will raise overnight rates come June 15, less than two weeks from now. Of course, we have been saying that for some time.

Yesterday, after the long holiday weekend, we might have expected some hint of certainty but we received instead contradictory data, which, in all objectivity, however, was quite positive for the U.S. economy. Some of it reinforced the idea that the Fed would raise rates in the June meeting. Some of the data old the hawks to step down and wait one more FOMC meeting. 

Considering the recent price declines in gold, one must not forget that the precious yellow metal has been one of the best performing assets in 2016.